The Delphi Method involves the (mostly written) questioning of experts in several stages,
on the pattern of:
- Round of questionnaires – Feedback to experts
- Round of questionnaires etc.
An evaluation takes place after each round of questionnaires. The results of the evaluation are sent back to the experts so they can check and, if appropriate, revise their forecasts or justify their difference from the “average”.
The aim of expert interviews using the Delphi Method is to generate well-founded estimates of future market developments and trends. Delphi surveys often consider a forecast horizon of 10 or more years, and the results can be used as the basis for scenario analyses.
Problems which are more long-term or complex to resolve tend to be suitable subjects for forecasts.
This method is also used for the generation or evaluation of ideas by experts under the name Ideas Delphi.